Draft a save-campaign for subscribers who skipped their last two shipments. No discount — offer something that protects margin.
Right tack. Skippers are almost always a cadence problem, not a price problem — a discount re-acquires them at a worse LTV. I'll size the group, segment by why they're skipping, and draft a non-discount save flow.
482 subscribers at risk · $64,106 in LTV exposed if they churn. Median tenure in this group is 8 months, so these are real customers — worth the save effort. Average LTV $133, so a discount-heavy save would burn 15–25% of recoverable LTV for no reason.
Three sub-cohorts based on why they're skipping:
| COHORT | SIZE | PRIMARY REASON | RECOMMENDED OFFER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadence-long | 294 | "Still have product" | Extend cadence to 45d or 60d, free |
| Pause-break | 106 | "Taking a break" | 90-day pause with 1-click resume |
| Price-sensitive | 82 | Price | Waived shipping on next order (~$6.50 cost, preserves product margin) |
Draft flow: `skio-skipped-2x-save` (3 emails + 1 SMS)
| TOUCH | TIMING | CHANNEL | SUBJECT / MSG | PRIMARY CTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T+0 (48h after 2nd skip) | "A small question — are we shipping too fast?" | "Switch to 45 or 60 days" (free) | |
| 2 | T+4d | SMS | "Hey {first}, want to pause instead? No pressure — 1 tap." | Pause-90 deep link |
| 3 | T+9d | "No product for now — a recipe, though" | Content-only, no upsell | |
| 4 | T+16d | "Free shipping on your next box if you'd like to restart" | Resume + waive shipping |
Key rules:
- No percentage discounts anywhere in the flow. Shipping waiver on touch 4 is ~$6.50 cost; protects product margin and is measured to convert as well as 10% off in our prior tests.
- Each touch has a single CTA. Touch 3 is content-only on purpose — gives a reason to re-engage without selling.
- Flow auto-exits if the subscriber resumes, pauses, or cancels.
Expected save rate based on prior flows: 32–38% resumption within 30 days, vs ~12% for do-nothing. That would save roughly $21k–$24k of the $64k at-risk LTV.
Flow is built in Klaviyo in paused state — winback · skipped-2x-save · v1. Tagged Amira + Devon in #cs for review. Hit approve and it'll go live against the cohort tomorrow morning.