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Customer · Health & Wellness · Subscription DTC

Verdant Labs · verdantlabs.shop

Clean-label daily supplements · Portland, OR · on Shopify Plus · live since 2026-01-14

Account Team
JT
MP
RE
As of Tuesday, April 21 at 1:34 PM
Revenue · 30d
$487,320
+18.2% vs. prior 30d
Orders · 30d
3,214
+11.4% vs. prior 30d
Active subscribers
8,472
+3.8% MoM
Avg LTV · 12mo
$312.40
+6.1% vs. last quarter
Predicted churn · 30d
4.6%
-1.4% improvement vs. 90d avg
Blended ROAS
3.41×
-8.0% vs. prior 30d
Revenue — Weekly, 26-week projection
Forecast retrained nightly from order, subscription, and ad-spend signals. 95% prediction interval shown.
Model · healthy
$60k$95k$130k$165k$200kW01W03W05W07W09W11W13W15W17W19W21W23W25NOW · W18Fulfillment delaySleep Restore launch+30% vs. today
Observed
Forecast · 95% CI
Incident
Launch / win
Top products · Predictive
Product revenue — 30-day forecast
Ranked by predicted contribution. Model blends order velocity, subscription retention, and seasonality.
Total forecast · 30d
$444,800
+5.5% vs. prior 30d
Top gainer
Magnesium Glycinate
+15.9%
Top decliner
Creatine Monohydrate
-31.9%
Skew
Top 3 = 53% of forecast
concentration
#
Product
8-week trend
Sub / One-time
Forecast · 30d
Δ
01
Night Restore · 30-day
VND-SLEEP-30 Sleep
78% · 22%
$91,800
20.6% of total
▲ +9.0%
02
Core Trio · Bundle
VND-BUNDLE-CORE Bundle
64% · 36%
$78,600
17.7% of total
▲ +8.6%
03
Daily Focus · 30-day
VND-FOCUS-30 Focus
82% · 18%
$67,400
15.2% of total
▲ +15.8%
04
Immunity · 30-day
VND-IMMUNE-30 Immunity
71% · 29%
$46,800
10.5% of total
▼ -3.7%
05
Plant Protein · Vanilla
VND-PROTEIN-VAN Protein
38% · 62%
$44,200
9.9% of total
▲ +3.3%
06
Morning Greens · 30-day
VND-GREENS-30 Greens
69% · 31%
$34,800
7.8% of total
▲ +11.5%
07
Plant Protein · Chocolate
VND-PROTEIN-CHC Protein
32% · 68%
$24,800
5.6% of total
▼ -12.7%
08
Magnesium Glycinate
VND-MAGN-30 Minerals
81% · 19%
$26,200
5.9% of total
▲ +15.9%
09
Marine Collagen
VND-COLLAG-30 Beauty
72% · 28%
$20,400
4.6% of total
▲ +8.5%
10
Creatine Monohydrate
VND-CREATINE-30 Performance ⚠ Stockout risk · forecast compressed
41% · 59%
$9,800
2.2% of total
▼ -31.9%
Model · SKU Demand Forecast v4.1 · 92.1% accuracy · last trained 1d ago
Anomaly feed
Flagged by the anomaly detection model · last 72 hours
8 events
  1. Shopify 2h ago HIGH
    Cart abandonment rate +28%
    Primarily from Chrome mobile on /product/sleep-restore-bundle. Onset coincides with last theme deploy at 12:04 UTC.
    Impact: Est. $2,400/day revenue loss
    Suggested action
    Check checkout extension — Apple Pay button may have broken in the recent theme commit.
  2. Triple Whale 5h ago MED
    Meta CAC +38% over 7d
    Prospecting campaigns above the 7d moving average. Two creatives flagged as fatigued (CTR −40%).
    Impact: ROAS trending below 3.2 breakeven
    Suggested action
    Pause creatives VND-SPR-04 and VND-SPR-06. Queue three fresh concepts from Klaviyo top-performers.
  3. Skio 7h ago HIGH
    Subscription skip rate +19%
    Night Restore subscribers — skip requests up 19% in 48h. Correlates with a sleep-product competitor launch on Reddit.
    Impact: Projected MRR loss $8,400 if sustained
    Suggested action
    Deploy retention flow · variant B. Offer 20% off next shipment + loyalty points.
  4. Gorgias 14h ago MED
    Support sentiment declining
    Tickets tagged #shipping-delay up 3.2x overnight. Negative sentiment concentrated in US-West region.
    Impact: Reviews backlash risk · NPS forecast −4 pts
    Suggested action
    Ping ShipBob account manager. Preemptively email affected customers with tracking + credit.
  5. Klaviyo 1d ago LOW
    Welcome series open rate −6%
    New-subscriber welcome flow week-over-week. Subject-line A/B test VND-W04 is underperforming variant B by 4.2%.
    Impact: Minor · 30d projection −1.8% first-order conversion
    Suggested action
    Cut variant A. Promote variant B to 100% by end of day.
  6. Shopify 1d ago MED
    Inventory: Creatine Monohydrate critical
    5 days of supply. Reorder lead time is 9 days. Projected stockout W16.
    Impact: Est. $4,800 lost revenue + subscriber churn risk
    Suggested action
    Expedite PO VND-PO-2881. Queue "back in stock" notification flow.
  7. PageFly 2d ago LOW
    Landing page /focus LCP regression
    Largest Contentful Paint degraded from 1.6s to 2.9s after section revamp.
    Impact: Est. CVR drag 2-4%
    Suggested action
    Lazy-load the hero video; convert to webm.
  8. GoAffPro 3d ago LOW
    Affiliate payouts overdue
    14 affiliates past net-30. Total $12,400 in accrued payouts unreleased.
    Impact: Affiliate churn risk
    Suggested action
    Release batch VND-AFF-04-21. Auto-pay toggle available in GoAffPro.
Customer segments Ranked by 30d revenue contribution
VIP Subscribers 10% Loyal 38% Growing 22% One-time Buyers 18% Dormant 12%
  • VIP Subscribers · n=847 · 10% of customers
    Top 10% by LTV. Respond best to early-access drops.
    Avg LTV $4,280
    30d revenue $182,400
    Churn rate 2.2%
    +8.4%
  • Loyal · n=3,240 · 38% of customers
    Stable core. 2+ orders, active in last 90d.
    Avg LTV $1,560
    30d revenue $148,700
    Churn rate 3.4%
    +4.1%
  • Growing · n=1,890 · 22% of customers
    2nd order recent. High propensity to convert to subscription.
    Avg LTV $520
    30d revenue $72,400
    Churn rate 6.8%
    +13.5%
  • One-time Buyers · n=1,530 · 18% of customers
    Purchased once. Winback campaign candidate.
    Avg LTV $68
    30d revenue $42,800
    Churn rate 19.0%
    -7.0%
  • Dormant · n=965 · 12% of customers
    >120 days since last order. Reactivation flow eligible.
    Avg LTV $212
    30d revenue $8,700
    Churn rate 41.0%
    -18.0%
Subscription cohort retention
Each row is a monthly acquisition cohort. Each column is months-since-first-order.
Cohort
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
2026-04
n = 2,547
2026-03
n = 2,380
2026-02
n = 2,142
2026-01
n = 1,984
2025-12
n = 1,802
2025-11
n = 1,476
2025-10
n = 1,389
2025-09
n = 1,240
2025-08
n = 1,103
2025-07
n = 820
2025-06
n = 748
2025-05
n = 612
Avg M1 retention
94%
Avg M3 retention
79%
Avg M6 retention
66%
Subscribers at highest churn risk Next 30 days · $14,370 projected revenue at risk
RiskCustomerLTVLast orderTriggerAt risk
94
Margaret C.
mar***@proton.me
$84256d ago
Subscription skip · 3 consecutive SUBSCRIPTION
$1,240
91
David L.
dav***@gmail.com
$2,14062d ago
Payment failure · 2 unresolved BILLING
$1,820
88
Priya R.
pri***@outlook.com
$54048d ago
Negative support sentiment SUPPORT
$720
85
Amelia T.
ame***@hey.com
$3,12041d ago
Engagement drop · email ENGAGEMENT
$2,480
83
Jordan K.
jor***@fastmail.com
$38038d ago
Abandoned reorder · 2 times BEHAVIOR
$520
81
Wei S.
wei***@gmail.com
$1,89044d ago
Competitor page visits COMPETITIVE
$1,450
79
Hanna O.
han***@proton.me
$72052d ago
Skipped 2 deliveries SUBSCRIPTION
$860
77
Marcus V.
mar***@icloud.com
$1,42035d ago
Reduced subscription tier SUBSCRIPTION
$980
75
Sofia N.
sof***@gmail.com
$61040d ago
No email opens 30d ENGAGEMENT
$680
73
Teo R.
teo***@hey.com
$2,38046d ago
Support ticket · billing dispute BILLING
$1,920
71
Clara P.
cla***@proton.me
$51033d ago
Discount-only purchase pattern BEHAVIOR
$520
69
Idris B.
idr***@outlook.com
$1,64042d ago
Engagement drop · SMS ENGAGEMENT
$1,180
Showing 12 of 8,472 subscribers · ·
Inventory forecasts Days-until-stockout, ranked by risk
4 critical · 3 warnings · 5 healthy
  • Creatine Monohydrate
    VND-CREATINE-30
    48 on hand reorder @ 150
    Days left 5
    Velocity: 8.6/day
    −42 units forecast
  • Plant Protein · Chocolate
    VND-PROTEIN-CHC
    78 on hand reorder @ 150
    Days left 6
    Velocity: 12.8/day
    −28 units forecast
  • Core Trio · Bundle
    VND-BUNDLE-CORE
    82 on hand reorder @ 120
    Days left 8
    Velocity: 9.6/day
    −22 units forecast
  • Night Restore · 30-day
    VND-SLEEP-30
    142 on hand reorder @ 200
    Days left 10
    Velocity: 14.2/day
    −18 units forecast
  • Magnesium Glycinate
    VND-MAGN-30
    226 on hand reorder @ 220
    Days left 14
    Velocity: 15.9/day
    −4 units forecast
  • Daily Focus · 30-day
    VND-FOCUS-30
    388 on hand reorder @ 350
    Days left 17
    Velocity: 22.8/day
  • Omega-3 · 60-day
    VND-OMEGA-60
    165 on hand reorder @ 200
    Days left 22
    Velocity: 7.4/day
  • Women's Daily · Bundle
    VND-BUNDLE-WOM
    192 on hand reorder @ 180
    Days left 28
    Velocity: 6.8/day
  • Immunity · 30-day
    VND-IMMUNE-30
    620 on hand reorder @ 400
    Days left 34
    Velocity: 18.4/day
  • Morning Greens · 30-day
    VND-GREENS-30
    412 on hand reorder @ 280
    Days left 36
    Velocity: 11.4/day
  • Plant Protein · Vanilla
    VND-PROTEIN-VAN
    1,140 on hand reorder @ 600
    Days left 44
    Velocity: 26.2/day
  • Marine Collagen · 30-day
    VND-COLLAG-30
    540 on hand reorder @ 260
    Days left 53
    Velocity: 10.1/day
Marketing channels · 30d
Spend, return, and predicted saturation headroom
Total spend
$119,200
Total revenue
$679,100
Blended ROAS
4.95×
Gross margin contribution
$559,900
  • Meta Ads
    via Triple Whale
    Spend
    $48,200
    Revenue
    $184,200
    ROAS
    3.82× ▼
    Saturation 78% Headroom: 22%
    -12.0%
  • Google Ads
    via Triple Whale
    Spend
    $31,400
    Revenue
    $142,800
    ROAS
    4.55× —
    Saturation 54% Headroom: 46%
    +6.0%
  • TikTok Shop · Ads
    via TikTok
    Spend
    $22,800
    Revenue
    $88,400
    ROAS
    3.88× ▲
    Saturation 32% Headroom: 68%
    +24.0%
  • Klaviyo · Email
    via Klaviyo
    Spend
    $2,200
    Revenue
    $94,200
    ROAS
    42.80× —
    Saturation 41% Headroom: 59%
    +8.0%
  • Postscript · SMS
    via Postscript
    Spend
    $1,800
    Revenue
    $38,600
    ROAS
    21.40× ▲
    Saturation 28% Headroom: 72%
    +18.0%
  • Affiliate · GoAffPro
    via GoAffPro
    Spend
    $12,800
    Revenue
    $42,200
    ROAS
    3.30× —
    Saturation 46% Headroom: 54%
    +2.0%
  • Organic / Direct
    via Shopify
    Spend
    —
    Revenue
    $88,700
    ROAS
    —
    —
    +3.0%
Recommendations
🎯
Shift $8k/week from Meta → TikTok Shop Ads
Projected +$24k/month revenue · saturation headroom 68%
⚠
Meta creative fatigue detected in 2 ad sets
Pause VND-SPR-04, VND-SPR-06 · refresh concepts from Klaviyo top performers
🔔
Postscript saturation at 28%
Room to 2x SMS send volume without subscriber fatigue
Data sources
11 of 12 live · syncing continuously
Model health
All production models · training status
6 models running · 1 drifting · 5 healthy
  • Subscription Churn · v3.2
    HEALTHY
    Accuracy 91.2%
    Drift · threshold 8% 3.00%
    Last trained ·4h ago
    Next ·tonight 02:00 UTC
  • Customer LTV · v2.7
    HEALTHY
    Accuracy 88.4%
    Drift · threshold 8% 2.00%
    Last trained ·18h ago
    Next ·tomorrow 02:00 UTC
  • SKU Demand Forecast · v4.1
    HEALTHY
    Accuracy 92.1%
    Drift · threshold 8% 4.00%
    Last trained ·1d ago
    Next ·tomorrow 02:00 UTC
  • Multi-touch Attribution · v2.3
    DRIFTING
    Accuracy 79.1%
    Drift · threshold 8% 11.00%
    Last trained ·3d ago
    Next ·retraining now
    RETRAINING
  • Anomaly Detection · v5.0
    HEALTHY
    Accuracy 94.2%
    Drift · threshold 8% 2.00%
    Last trained ·6h ago
    Next ·every 6h
  • Product Recommender · v3.5
    HEALTHY
    Accuracy 87.1%
    Drift · threshold 8% 5.00%
    Last trained ·12h ago
    Next ·nightly
Models retrain nightly unless drift > 8% threshold. Live eval pipeline running on 1,847 test cases.